9.10.18

New poll finds a 30-point gender gap going into the midterms

A woman arrives at a polling station on New York state’s primary election day in September 2018.

Two-thirds of likely women voters say they support Democrats, according to a CNN poll.

Democrats could be looking at an elections bump after the bitterly fought battle to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh — a bump propelled by women voters.

Nearly two-thirds of registered women voters polled by CNN said they were more likely to vote for Democrats this November: 63 percent voting for the Democratic candidate, compared to 33 percent who said they’re more likely to vote for the Republican.

Men, on the other hand, are narrowly more likely to vote for Republican candidates — 50 percent of male voters said they were more likely to vote Republican, compared to 45 percent who said they were more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district.

The CNN poll — conducted from October 4-7 and released Tuesday — shows 54 percent of likely voters are planning to vote for the Democratic candidate in their House district, compared to 41 percent who are backing a Republican. Democrats have a 13-point advantage, which could be enough to overcome gerrymandered districts and allow Democrats to retake the House if it holds for the next month.

The CNN poll paints a clear picture: Democrats’ higher numbers are being driven by women.

CNN also found that Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote in the midterms than Republicans. Democrats have been more motivated all cycle, but that enthusiasm gap recently narrowed when it appeared Kavanaugh’s nomination was in real trouble.

When Kavanaugh’s nomination appeared troubled last week, it had the effect of revving up the Republican base in a way pollsters haven’t seen all election cycle. An NPR/Marist poll released on Wednesday showed that 80 percent of Republican voters polled said the midterms were “very important,” essentially on par with Democratic voters, who were at 82 percent.

But Tuesday’s poll paints a different picture. CNN found 62 percent of Democrats say they’re extremely or very enthusiastic to vote, a 7-point bump from September among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic. The enthusiasm of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is hovering at 52 percent, a bump of just 2 points since September, according to the poll.

source: vox

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